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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.