Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
