A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
