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Mounting concerns have emerged regarding the potential of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in last year that his government's sea access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry warned on 16 September that attempts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

So far, there are few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, government media has broadcast completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an conversation that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The two signed a announcement that the conflict was over – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's recent civil war in Tigray.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated again.